كيف نستمع إلى الخبراء

打开手机，我们每天都会看到各种各样的“专家建议”：每天应该喝几杯水，孩子几岁开始学外语最好，房价明年会上涨还是会下降……

Dǎkāi (third tone, dipping) shǒujī, (third tone, dipping) wǒmen (third tone, dipping) měi (third tone, dipping) tiān (first tone, high and level) dōu (first tone, high and level) huì (fourth tone, falling) kàn (fourth tone, falling) dào (fourth tone, falling) gè (fourth tone, falling) zhǒng (third tone, dipping) gè (fourth tone, falling) yàng (fourth tone, falling) de (neutral tone) “zhuānjiā (first tone, high and level) jiànyì”: (fourth tone, falling) měi (third tone, dipping) tiān (first tone, high and level) yīnggāi (first tone, high and level) hē (first tone, high and level) jǐ (third tone, dipping) bēi (first tone, high and level) shuǐ, (third tone, dipping) háizi (second tone, rising) jǐ (third tone, dipping) suì (fourth tone, falling) kāishǐ (first tone, high and level) xué (second tone, rising) wàiyǔ (fourth tone, falling) zuìhǎo, (fourth tone, falling) fángjià (second tone, rising) míngnián (second tone, rising) huì (fourth tone, falling) shàngzhǎng (fourth tone, falling) háishi (second tone, rising) huì (fourth tone, falling) xiàjiàng… (fourth tone, falling)

ما إن نفتح هواتفنا حتّى نرى كلّ يوم شتّى «نصائح الخبراء»: كم كوبًا من الماء ينبغي أن نشرب يوميًا، وفي أيّ سنّ يُفضَّل أن يبدأ الطفل تعلّم لغة أجنبية، وهل ستصعد أسعار البيوت في العام المقبل أم ستنخفض…

有人认为，专家受过专业训练，掌握的知识比一般人多，他们的话自然值得相信；

Yǒu (third tone, dipping) rén (second tone, rising) rènwéi, (fourth tone, falling) zhuānjiā (first tone, high and level) shòuguo (fourth tone, falling) zhuānyè (first tone, high and level) xùnliàn, (fourth tone, falling) zhǎngwò (third tone, dipping) de (neutral tone) zhīshi (first tone, high and level) bǐ (third tone, dipping) yìbān (fourth tone, falling) rén (second tone, rising) duō, (first tone, high and level) tāmen (first tone, high and level) de (neutral tone) huà (fourth tone, falling) zìrán (fourth tone, falling) zhíde (second tone, rising) xiāngxìn; (first tone, high and level)

يرى بعضهم أنّ الخبراء تلقّوا تدريبًا متخصّصًا ويعرفون أكثر من عامّة الناس، فكلامهم بطبيعة الحال جدير بالتصديق؛

也有人发现，专家之间常常意见不一，今天说某种食物对健康有好处，明天又说吃多了有害，于是干脆认为专家的话都不可信。

Yě (third tone, dipping) yǒu (third tone, dipping) rén (second tone, rising) fāxiàn, (first tone, high and level) zhuānjiā (first tone, high and level) zhījiān (first tone, high and level) chángcháng (second tone, rising) yìjiàn (fourth tone, falling) bù (fourth tone, falling) yī, (first tone, high and level) jīntiān (first tone, high and level) shuō (first tone, high and level) mǒu (third tone, dipping) zhǒng (third tone, dipping) shíwù (second tone, rising) duì (fourth tone, falling) jiànkāng (fourth tone, falling) yǒu (third tone, dipping) hǎochu, (third tone, dipping) míngtiān (second tone, rising) yòu (fourth tone, falling) shuō (first tone, high and level) chī (first tone, high and level) duō (first tone, high and level) le (neutral tone) yǒuhài, (third tone, dipping) yúshì (second tone, rising) gāncuì (first tone, high and level) rènwéi (fourth tone, falling) zhuānjiā (first tone, high and level) de (neutral tone) huà (fourth tone, falling) dōu (first tone, high and level) bù (fourth tone, falling) kěxìn. (third tone, dipping)

ويلاحظ آخرون أنّ الخبراء كثيرًا ما يختلفون فيما بينهم، يقولون اليوم إنّ طعامًا ما مفيد للصحّة، ثمّ يقولون غدًا إنّ الإكثار منه ضارّ، فيقرّرون ببساطة أنّ كلام الخبراء كلّه لا يُصدَّق.

在我看来，这两种态度都有问题。

Zài (fourth tone, falling) wǒ (third tone, dipping) kànlai, (fourth tone, falling) zhè (fourth tone, falling) liǎng (third tone, dipping) zhǒng (third tone, dipping) tàidu (fourth tone, falling) dōu (first tone, high and level) yǒu (third tone, dipping) wèntí. (fourth tone, falling)

في رأيي، كلا الموقفين فيه خلل.

完全相信专家，等于放弃了自己的判断。

Wánquán (second tone, rising) xiāngxìn (first tone, high and level) zhuānjiā, (first tone, high and level) děngyú (third tone, dipping) fàngqì (fourth tone, falling) le (neutral tone) zìjǐ (fourth tone, falling) de (neutral tone) pànduàn. (fourth tone, falling)

فالثقة المطلقة بالخبراء تعني التخلّي عن الحكم الذاتي.

首先，任何专家都只是在某一个领域内有专长，一旦离开了自己熟悉的范围，他们的意见并不一定比一般人高明多少。

Shǒuxiān, (third tone, dipping) rènhé (fourth tone, falling) zhuānjiā (first tone, high and level) dōu (first tone, high and level) zhǐshì (third tone, dipping) zài (fourth tone, falling) mǒu (third tone, dipping) yí (second tone, rising) ge (neutral tone) lǐngyù (third tone, dipping) nèi (fourth tone, falling) yǒu (third tone, dipping) zhuāncháng, (first tone, high and level) yídàn (second tone, rising) líkāi (second tone, rising) le (neutral tone) zìjǐ (fourth tone, falling) shúxī (second tone, rising) de (neutral tone) fànwéi, (fourth tone, falling) tāmen (first tone, high and level) de (neutral tone) yìjiàn (fourth tone, falling) bìng (fourth tone, falling) bù (fourth tone, falling) yídìng (second tone, rising) bǐ (third tone, dipping) yìbān (fourth tone, falling) rén (second tone, rising) gāomíng (first tone, high and level) duōshao. (first tone, high and level)

أوّلًا، كلّ خبير متخصّص في مجال معيّن فقط، وما إن يخرج من نطاقه المألوف حتّى لا يكون رأيه بالضرورة أحكم كثيرًا من رأي غيره.

一位优秀的医生谈健康问题时值得认真倾听，可是当他谈经济形势的时候，我们就没有理由把他的话看成权威。

Yí (second tone, rising) wèi (fourth tone, falling) yōuxiù (first tone, high and level) de (neutral tone) yīshēng (first tone, high and level) tán (second tone, rising) jiànkāng (fourth tone, falling) wèntí (fourth tone, falling) shí (second tone, rising) zhíde (second tone, rising) rènzhēn (fourth tone, falling) qīngtīng, (first tone, high and level) kěshì (third tone, dipping) dāng (first tone, high and level) tā (first tone, high and level) tán (second tone, rising) jīngjì (first tone, high and level) xíngshì (second tone, rising) de (neutral tone) shíhou, (second tone, rising) wǒmen (third tone, dipping) jiù (fourth tone, falling) méiyǒu (second tone, rising) lǐyóu (third tone, dipping) bǎ (third tone, dipping) tā (first tone, high and level) de (neutral tone) huà (fourth tone, falling) kànchéng (fourth tone, falling) quánwēi. (second tone, rising)

الطبيب الممتاز يستحقّ أن نصغي إليه بعناية حين يتحدّث عن الصحّة، لكن حين يتحدّث عن الوضع الاقتصادي فلا سبب لدينا لنعدّ كلامه مرجعًا.

其次，科学知识本身也在不断发展。

Qícì, (second tone, rising) kēxué (first tone, high and level) zhīshi (first tone, high and level) běnshēn (third tone, dipping) yě (third tone, dipping) zài (fourth tone, falling) búduàn (second tone, rising) fāzhǎn. (first tone, high and level)

ثانيًا، المعرفة العلمية نفسها في تطوّر مستمرّ.

许多过去被认为正确的结论，后来随着新的证据出现而被修改，甚至被推翻。

Xǔduō (third tone, dipping) guòqu (fourth tone, falling) bèi (fourth tone, falling) rènwéi (fourth tone, falling) zhèngquè (fourth tone, falling) de (neutral tone) jiélùn, (second tone, rising) hòulái (fourth tone, falling) suízhe (second tone, rising) xīn (first tone, high and level) de (neutral tone) zhèngjù (fourth tone, falling) chūxiàn (first tone, high and level) ér (second tone, rising) bèi (fourth tone, falling) xiūgǎi, (first tone, high and level) shènzhì (fourth tone, falling) bèi (fourth tone, falling) tuīfān. (first tone, high and level)

فكثير من النتائج التي عُدّت صحيحة في الماضي عُدّلت لاحقًا مع ظهور أدلّة جديدة، بل نُقضت أحيانًا.

专家的建议往往反映的是当前的认识水平，而不是永远不变的真理。

Zhuānjiā (first tone, high and level) de (neutral tone) jiànyì (fourth tone, falling) wǎngwǎng (third tone, dipping) fǎnyìng (third tone, dipping) de (neutral tone) shì (fourth tone, falling) dāngqián (first tone, high and level) de (neutral tone) rènshi (fourth tone, falling) shuǐpíng, (third tone, dipping) ér (second tone, rising) bú (second tone, rising) shì (fourth tone, falling) yǒngyuǎn (third tone, dipping) bú (second tone, rising) biàn (fourth tone, falling) de (neutral tone) zhēnlǐ. (first tone, high and level)

ونصائح الخبراء تعكس عادة مستوى الفهم الحالي، لا حقيقة لا تتغيّر أبدًا.

此外，我们还应该注意，有些所谓的“专家”背后有着商业利益，他们推荐某种产品，未必是因为专业判断。

Cǐwài, (third tone, dipping) wǒmen (third tone, dipping) hái (second tone, rising) yīnggāi (first tone, high and level) zhùyì, (fourth tone, falling) yǒuxiē (third tone, dipping) suǒwèi (third tone, dipping) de (neutral tone) “zhuānjiā” (first tone, high and level) bèihòu (fourth tone, falling) yǒu (third tone, dipping) zhe (neutral tone) shāngyè (first tone, high and level) lìyì, (fourth tone, falling) tāmen (first tone, high and level) tuījiàn (first tone, high and level) mǒu (third tone, dipping) zhǒng (third tone, dipping) chǎnpǐn, (third tone, dipping) wèibì (fourth tone, falling) shì (fourth tone, falling) yīnwèi (first tone, high and level) zhuānyè (first tone, high and level) pànduàn. (fourth tone, falling)

كما ينبغي أن ننتبه إلى أنّ بعض من يُسمَّون «خبراء» تقف وراءهم مصالح تجارية، فتوصيتهم بمنتج ما ليست بالضرورة نابعة من حكم مهني.

有的人在电视上一边介绍健康知识，一边卖自己公司的产品，对这样的建议，我们就需要特别小心。

Yǒude (third tone, dipping) rén (second tone, rising) zài (fourth tone, falling) diànshì (fourth tone, falling) shang (neutral tone) yìbiān (fourth tone, falling) jièshào (fourth tone, falling) jiànkāng (fourth tone, falling) zhīshi, (first tone, high and level) yìbiān (fourth tone, falling) mài (fourth tone, falling) zìjǐ (fourth tone, falling) gōngsī (first tone, high and level) de (neutral tone) chǎnpǐn, (third tone, dipping) duì (fourth tone, falling) zhèyàng (fourth tone, falling) de (neutral tone) jiànyì, (fourth tone, falling) wǒmen (third tone, dipping) jiù (fourth tone, falling) xūyào (first tone, high and level) tèbié (fourth tone, falling) xiǎoxīn. (third tone, dipping)

فبعضهم يقدّم معلومات صحّية على التلفاز ويبيع في الوقت نفسه منتجات شركته، ومع مثل هذه النصائح يجب أن نكون حذرين بشكل خاصّ.

然而，因为专家可能出错就完全拒绝专家的意见，同样是不理智的。

Rán (second tone, rising) ér, (second tone, rising) yīnwèi (first tone, high and level) zhuānjiā (first tone, high and level) kěnéng (third tone, dipping) chūcuò (first tone, high and level) jiù (fourth tone, falling) wánquán (second tone, rising) jùjué (fourth tone, falling) zhuānjiā (first tone, high and level) de (neutral tone) yìjiàn, (fourth tone, falling) tóngyàng (second tone, rising) shì (fourth tone, falling) bù (fourth tone, falling) lǐzhì (third tone, dipping) de. (neutral tone)

غير أنّ رفض آراء الخبراء كلّيًا لأنّهم قد يخطئون هو أيضًا موقف غير عقلاني.

专家也会犯错误，但是在他们熟悉的领域里，犯错误的可能性通常比外行小得多。

Zhuānjiā (first tone, high and level) yě (third tone, dipping) huì (fourth tone, falling) fàn (fourth tone, falling) cuòwù, (fourth tone, falling) dànshì (fourth tone, falling) zài (fourth tone, falling) tāmen (first tone, high and level) shúxī (second tone, rising) de (neutral tone) lǐngyù (third tone, dipping) li, (neutral tone) fàn (fourth tone, falling) cuòwù (fourth tone, falling) de (neutral tone) kěnéngxìng (third tone, dipping) tōngcháng (first tone, high and level) bǐ (third tone, dipping) wàiháng (fourth tone, falling) xiǎo (third tone, dipping) de (neutral tone) duō. (first tone, high and level)

الخبراء يخطئون أيضًا، لكنّ احتمال خطئهم في مجالهم عادة أقلّ بكثير من احتمال خطأ غير المتخصّصين.

生病了，我们还是应该去医院看医生，而不是相信网上一篇不知道是谁写的文章；房子要盖得结实，也离不开工程师的设计和计算。

Shēngbìng (first tone, high and level) le, (neutral tone) wǒmen (third tone, dipping) háishi (second tone, rising) yīnggāi (first tone, high and level) qù (fourth tone, falling) yīyuàn (first tone, high and level) kàn (fourth tone, falling) yīshēng, (first tone, high and level) ér (second tone, rising) bú (second tone, rising) shì (fourth tone, falling) xiāngxìn (first tone, high and level) wǎngshang (third tone, dipping) yì (fourth tone, falling) piān (first tone, high and level) bù (fourth tone, falling) zhīdào (first tone, high and level) shì (fourth tone, falling) shuí (second tone, rising) xiě (third tone, dipping) de (neutral tone) wénzhāng; (second tone, rising) fángzi (second tone, rising) yào (fourth tone, falling) gài (fourth tone, falling) de (neutral tone) jiēshi, (first tone, high and level) yě (third tone, dipping) lí (second tone, rising) bu (neutral tone) kāi (first tone, high and level) gōngchéngshī (first tone, high and level) de (neutral tone) shèjì (fourth tone, falling) hé (second tone, rising) jìsuàn. (fourth tone, falling)

فإذا مرضنا، فعلينا أن نذهب إلى المستشفى لنرى الطبيب، لا أن نصدّق مقالًا على الإنترنت لا نعرف من كتبه؛ والبيت لكي يُبنى متينًا لا غنى له عن تصميم المهندس وحساباته.

专家之间存在分歧，正好说明问题本身还不够清楚，需要更多的研究，而不是说明所有的观点都同样没有价值。

Zhuānjiā (first tone, high and level) zhījiān (first tone, high and level) cúnzài (second tone, rising) fēnqí, (first tone, high and level) zhènghǎo (fourth tone, falling) shuōmíng (first tone, high and level) wèntí (fourth tone, falling) běnshēn (third tone, dipping) hái (second tone, rising) bú (second tone, rising) gòu (fourth tone, falling) qīngchu, (first tone, high and level) xūyào (first tone, high and level) gèng (fourth tone, falling) duō (first tone, high and level) de (neutral tone) yánjiū, (second tone, rising) ér (second tone, rising) bú (second tone, rising) shì (fourth tone, falling) shuōmíng (first tone, high and level) suǒyǒu (third tone, dipping) de (neutral tone) guāndiǎn (first tone, high and level) dōu (first tone, high and level) tóngyàng (second tone, rising) méiyǒu (second tone, rising) jiàzhí. (fourth tone, falling)

ووجود خلاف بين الخبراء يدلّ تحديدًا على أنّ المسألة نفسها لم تتّضح بعد وتحتاج إلى مزيد من البحث، لا على أنّ كلّ الآراء متساوية في انعدام قيمتها.

比如，关于每天应该喝多少水，不同的专家给出的数字可能不一样，但是没有一位专家会说，人可以长时间不喝水。

Bǐrú, (third tone, dipping) guānyú (first tone, high and level) měi (third tone, dipping) tiān (first tone, high and level) yīnggāi (first tone, high and level) hē (first tone, high and level) duōshao (first tone, high and level) shuǐ, (third tone, dipping) bùtóng (fourth tone, falling) de (neutral tone) zhuānjiā (first tone, high and level) gěichū (third tone, dipping) de (neutral tone) shùzì (fourth tone, falling) kěnéng (third tone, dipping) bù (fourth tone, falling) yíyàng, (second tone, rising) dànshì (fourth tone, falling) méiyǒu (second tone, rising) yí (second tone, rising) wèi (fourth tone, falling) zhuānjiā (first tone, high and level) huì (fourth tone, falling) shuō, (first tone, high and level) rén (second tone, rising) kěyǐ (third tone, dipping) cháng (second tone, rising) shíjiān (second tone, rising) bù (fourth tone, falling) hē (first tone, high and level) shuǐ. (third tone, dipping)

فمثلًا، قد يعطي الخبراء أرقامًا مختلفة لكمّية الماء التي ينبغي شربها يوميًا، لكن لن يقول أيّ خبير إنّ الإنسان يستطيع البقاء مدّة طويلة دون ماء.

那么，面对专家的建议，我们究竟应该怎么做呢？

Nàme, (fourth tone, falling) miànduì (fourth tone, falling) zhuānjiā (first tone, high and level) de (neutral tone) jiànyì, (fourth tone, falling) wǒmen (third tone, dipping) jiūjìng (first tone, high and level) yīnggāi (first tone, high and level) zěnme (third tone, dipping) zuò (fourth tone, falling) ne? (neutral tone)

إذن، ماذا ينبغي أن نفعل بالضبط أمام نصائح الخبراء؟

我认为，至少可以问自己三个问题。

Wǒ (third tone, dipping) rènwéi, (fourth tone, falling) zhìshǎo (fourth tone, falling) kěyǐ (third tone, dipping) wèn (fourth tone, falling) zìjǐ (fourth tone, falling) sān (first tone, high and level) ge (neutral tone) wèntí. (fourth tone, falling)

أرى أنّنا نستطيع على الأقلّ أن نطرح على أنفسنا ثلاثة أسئلة.

第一，说这话的人是不是这个领域的专家？

Dì (fourth tone, falling) yī, (first tone, high and level) shuō (first tone, high and level) zhè (fourth tone, falling) huà (fourth tone, falling) de (neutral tone) rén (second tone, rising) shì (fourth tone, falling) bu (neutral tone) shì (fourth tone, falling) zhè (fourth tone, falling) ge (neutral tone) lǐngyù (third tone, dipping) de (neutral tone) zhuānjiā? (first tone, high and level)

أوّلًا، هل قائل هذا الكلام خبير في هذا المجال؟

第二，他的结论有没有可靠的证据，其他专家是否普遍同意？

Dì (fourth tone, falling) èr, (fourth tone, falling) tā (first tone, high and level) de (neutral tone) jiélùn (second tone, rising) yǒu (third tone, dipping) méiyǒu (second tone, rising) kěkào (third tone, dipping) de (neutral tone) zhèngjù, (fourth tone, falling) qítā (second tone, rising) zhuānjiā (first tone, high and level) shìfǒu (fourth tone, falling) pǔbiàn (third tone, dipping) tóngyì? (second tone, rising)

ثانيًا، هل لاستنتاجه أدلّة موثوقة، وهل يوافقه الخبراء الآخرون عمومًا؟

第三，他是否会从这个建议中获得利益？

Dì (fourth tone, falling) sān, (first tone, high and level) tā (first tone, high and level) shìfǒu (fourth tone, falling) huì (fourth tone, falling) cóng (second tone, rising) zhè (fourth tone, falling) ge (neutral tone) jiànyì (fourth tone, falling) zhōng (first tone, high and level) huòdé (fourth tone, falling) lìyì? (fourth tone, falling)

ثالثًا، هل سيجني منفعة من هذه النصيحة؟

如果三个问题的答案都让人满意，那么这条建议就值得认真对待；如果其中有一个答案让人怀疑，我们就应该多找一些资料，多听听不同的声音，再做决定。

Rúguǒ (second tone, rising) sān (first tone, high and level) ge (neutral tone) wèntí (fourth tone, falling) de (neutral tone) dá (second tone, rising) àn (fourth tone, falling) dōu (first tone, high and level) ràng (fourth tone, falling) rén (second tone, rising) mǎnyì, (third tone, dipping) nàme (fourth tone, falling) zhè (fourth tone, falling) tiáo (second tone, rising) jiànyì (fourth tone, falling) jiù (fourth tone, falling) zhíde (second tone, rising) rènzhēn (fourth tone, falling) duìdài; (fourth tone, falling) rúguǒ (second tone, rising) qízhōng (second tone, rising) yǒu (third tone, dipping) yí (second tone, rising) ge (neutral tone) dá (second tone, rising) àn (fourth tone, falling) ràng (fourth tone, falling) rén (second tone, rising) huáiyí, (second tone, rising) wǒmen (third tone, dipping) jiù (fourth tone, falling) yīnggāi (first tone, high and level) duō (first tone, high and level) zhǎo (third tone, dipping) yìxiē (fourth tone, falling) zīliào, (first tone, high and level) duō (first tone, high and level) tīngting (first tone, high and level) bùtóng (fourth tone, falling) de (neutral tone) shēngyīn, (first tone, high and level) zài (fourth tone, falling) zuò (fourth tone, falling) juédìng. (second tone, rising)

إذا كانت إجابات الأسئلة الثلاثة مُرضية، فالنصيحة جديرة بأن تؤخذ بجدّية؛ وإذا أثارت إحداها الشكّ، فعلينا أن نبحث عن مزيد من المعلومات ونستمع إلى آراء مختلفة قبل أن نقرّر.

尊重专业，又保持独立思考，这或许才是一个现代人面对信息时应该有的态度。

Zūnzhòng (first tone, high and level) zhuānyè, (first tone, high and level) yòu (fourth tone, falling) bǎochí (third tone, dipping) dúlì (second tone, rising) sīkǎo, (first tone, high and level) zhè (fourth tone, falling) huòxǔ (fourth tone, falling) cái (second tone, rising) shì (fourth tone, falling) yí (second tone, rising) ge (neutral tone) xiàndài (fourth tone, falling) rén (second tone, rising) miànduì (fourth tone, falling) xìnxī (fourth tone, falling) shí (second tone, rising) yīnggāi (first tone, high and level) yǒu (third tone, dipping) de (neutral tone) tàidu. (fourth tone, falling)

احترام التخصّص مع الحفاظ على التفكير المستقلّ، ربّما يكون هذا هو الموقف الذي ينبغي أن يتّخذه الإنسان المعاصر أمام المعلومات.